My book for November was On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver. I read Silver's previous book, the signal and the noise, in May of 2013. I currently follow him on Substack.
The book explores the mindset and strategies of elite risk-takers, whom he collectively terms "The River." Drawing on his background as a professional poker player and statistician, Silver investigates how people like professional gamblers, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and AI innovators navigate extreme uncertainty and use probabilistic thinking to their advantage in high-stakes environments. The book contrasts "The River's" analytical, contrarian, and risk-tolerant approach with "The Village," a metaphor for the more cautious, conventional mainstream elites in media, academia, and government. Through anecdotes including a detailed look at the rise and fall of FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried—Silver, Silver reveals the common traits and decision-making processes that enable this influential group to shape the global economy and technology.
Although I don't recommend it, I enjoyed the book. It is a mishmash of engaging stories that I don't think fit together towards the books conclusions. I enjoyed the stories. I just don't see how everything fits into some practical conclusions...
There is a discussion at the end of the book about p(Doom). In AI safety, P(doom) is the probability of existentially catastrophic outcomes (so-called "doomsday scenarios") as a result of artificial intelligence. At one point, Silver notes that the scientists building the current Large Language Model AIs don't understand how some of the answers are generated. I am going to follow up by reading a basic primer on AI technology.
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